19 September 2008 

Dear Arizona Taxpayer,

Good news:  Our impending grassroots victory on lifting the offshore drilling ban has nothing to do with the passage of the Pelosi bill in the US House of Representatives on Tuesday. Just the opposite: our victory is due to the fact that the Pelosi bill is going nowhere, and the fact that the drilling ban is set to expire automatically on October 1^st.  

Bad news:  On Tuesday (Sept 16), by a vote of 236-189, a majority in the US House of Representatives, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, passed a bad bill (HR 6899) that made a false claim of allowing significant increases in offshore oil drilling. The bill would also have increased energy taxes. 

Good news:  Happily, the bill they passed is basically dead on arrival in the Senate, among other reasons because it contains a renewable electricity mandate that the Senate has already rejected several times.  Even if it were to pass, the President would veto it, because it includes major tax hikes on oil companies. 

Bad news:  Anti-drilling forces in the US Senate will likely stage their own version of the House bill, centered on some version of the Gang of 10/20 deal, which also includes higher taxes and a limited regime of offshore drilling. 

Good news:  The Senate may or may not pass that bill, but given how little legislative time is left, there is a near-zero chance of any such deal passing both chambers.  Even if it did, the President would veto it.  The House and Senate bills are bad bills, and we will continue to monitor them, but at this point, they are little more than political theater.

Good strategy:  Since July, AFP’s strategy has been to focus on the automatic expiration of the bans on offshore drilling and oil shale development at the end of September, which is now only 12 days away. The virtue of this strategy is that it does not require passing any legislation (let alone bad bills such as the Pelosi bill), but simply holding the line against any attempt to pass an extension of the current bans. 

Good work:  Anti-drilling forces in Congress had intended to hide an extension of the ban in a continuing resolution. We helped to rally the conservative grassroots against that move, and our allies in the Senate, led by Jim DeMint, and in the House, led by John Shadegg and Jeb Hensarling, rounded up support for letting the ban expire. Thanks to their hard work, it was clear that a presidential veto of a false bill would be easily sustainable. 

Drama:  Anti-drilling forces considered pursuing a showdown anyway, which could have resulted in a government shutdown.  Supporters of drilling stood their ground, speaking en masse at an AFP-sponsored rally calling for the bans to expire on schedule, making October 1, 2008 (the first day without the ban) Energy Freedom Day.  Yesterday morning (Sept 18) came the news that anti-drilling forces--in the Senate, at least--have agreed to let the bans expire on schedule in order to avoid a showdown, and to let members go home to campaign. 

The upshot:  It appears that we have won this battle in the war on drilling. If you wish to keep your champagne on ice until October 1^st, that’s understandable. And in any case, we will have to remain vigilant, especially after January 20, 2009…

Tom Jenney

AZ Director

Americans for Prosperity