FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - June 18th, 2008
Contact: Dustin Gawrylow, (701) 223-9887

Group Releases Preliminary State Surplus Projections

Current Trends Point to State Surplus in Excess of $950 million this Biennium

BISMARCK - Americans for Prosperity- North Dakota today released its preliminary surplus estimates for the current biennium.

The full report can be seen here.

"AFP has been saying for several months that we anticipate a Billion Dollar Surplus. Many folks have challenged that claim, this report is designed to show the taxpayers and the voters exactly how we are able to make the claim of a Billion Dollar Surplus," state policy director Dustin Gawrylow said. "Even if the economy were to take an 18% dive from today's situation, we estimate there will be in-excess of $950 million in total surplus, including carry-over reserves. North Dakota seems to be buffered from the current national downturn, and should ride out a national recession pretty well, but we certainly would not expect nothing to change. This is why we have factored a significant economic downturn in to our Conservative Projection Model."

These estimates include two linear projection models.

The Conservative Model takes the average monthly state revenue for the first 10 months of the biennium and multiplies that average by 24, the total number of months in a biennium. The Conservative Model can be defined as a "down-turn economic projection," meaning that if the prevailing economic condition of the first 10-months decline by 18% for the next 14-months, this model is an accurate estimate.

The Realistic Model takes that same monthly average multiplied by 14 (the number of months left in the biennium) and adds it to the total revenue for the first 10 months. The Realistic Model can be defined as a "flat economy projection," meaning that if the prevailing economic conditions of the first 10-months remain for the remaining 14-month, this model is an accurate estimate.

"The individual taxpayers of North Dakota need to understand that not all of the surplus is based on the taxes on oil. Between $200 million and $300 million of the projected surplus will come from general taxation this biennium," Gawrylow concluded.

Americans for Prosperity Foundation (AFPF) is a nationwide organization of citizen leaders committed to advancing every individual's right to economic freedom and opportunity. AFPF believes reducing the size and scope of government is the best safeguard to ensuring individual productivity and prosperity for all Americans. AFPF educates and engages citizens in support of restraining state and federal government growth, and returning government to its constitutional limits. For more information, visit www.americansforprosperity.org.

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